The expected return of Homer Bailey from Tommy John surgery creates an opportunity for the Cincinnati Reds to use a six-man rotation in 2016.
Bailey won’t likely return to the Reds until mid-May. That timetable could extend into June if his progress is slow.
The Reds will need to monitor Bailey’s workload. The team will also monitor the workload of other starting pitchers. This workload issue makes a six-man rotation a viable option for the Reds upon Bailey’s return.
The Reds can’t expect a full season in the rotation from either Raisel Iglesias or Brandon Finnegan. Iglesias pitched a total of 124.1 innings in 2015. He’ll be limited to about 160 innings in 2016. Finnegan threw 105.1 total innings last year. He won’t likely throw more than 150 innings in 2016.
Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen and John Lamb can throw at least 190 innings. All three threw more than 155 innings in 2015. A six-man rotation would cost all three innings, but their development as quality starters is more important than just the number of innings they pitch.
The Reds can continue to refine the rotation search that started last year by using a six-man rotation this year. Rookies started the final 64 games of the 2015 season. Those starts answered some questions about the Reds’ future rotation.
More of those answers will come this year. Finnegan, Lorenzen and Lamb are all candidates to eventually move to the bullpen. The Reds need to find out first if any of these three can flourish as starters.
The Reds are in a position to maximize the market value of their starting pitching. The cost of starting pitching is unprecedented in the league. The Reds could gain a great deal through a mid-season or offseason trade of one or more of their starters in a six-man rotation.
Also, a six-man rotation in 2016 would go a long way to help the Reds return to relevance in 2017. By that time, prospects such as Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed and Amir Garrett will make their bids to crack the rotation.
The Reds will then be able to put their best rotation forward.
Robb Hoff writes about the Cincinnati Reds for OutsidePitch MLB. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook and Google+.
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